Netanyahu to debate Iran proposal with Trump after rejection

Israel’s Channel 12 experiences Netanyahu will quickly discuss to Trump after his rejection of an Iranian proposal. The chances of Iran agreeing to give up its uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026, are at 0.5% YES, down from 11% per week in the past.

The marketplace for a uranium give up by June 30, 2026 is at 22.5% YES, up barely from 22% yesterday however down from 34% per week in the past. The December 31, 2026 contract sits at 39.5% YES. Merchants are pricing in virtually no likelihood of a short-term deal and betting on an extended timeline.

The 22-point hole between the April 30 and June 30 contracts implies merchants count on a potential catalyst after April however not earlier than. Complete face worth traded is $273,156, with $24,872 in precise USDC. It takes simply $1,291 to maneuver the April 30 market 5 factors, that means even small capital flows might shift the worth.

Trump’s outright rejection and Netanyahu’s deliberate dialogue level towards a more durable line, which reduces the chance of a diplomatic deal on uranium. For contrarian merchants, a YES share at 0.5¢ pays $1 if resolved, a theoretical 200x return. That wager requires assuming substantial behind-the-scenes progress that isn’t publicly seen.

Look ahead to White Home statements or any surprising announcement of direct US-Iranian contact. Both would doubtless reprice these contracts rapidly.

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